Alex Abrams by Alex Abrams

Over-Unders For Missouri State Game

  OK, so now that Arkansas is about to kick off its season,  let’s try something that I attempted last year. I’m calling it Over-Under, though I’m not encouraging gambling in any way. (But if you’re betting, I like Charleston Southern to cover the 73-point spread against top-ranked Florida.)

  Anyway, here’s how Over-Under will go. I’ll throw out a statistic and then try to predict whether that number will fall short in Arkansas’ season opener against Missouri State. In case you’re not a gambler (which of course none of us are), it’s sounds more complicated than it actually is.

  So let’s begin…

  285 (Numbers of yards quarterback Ryan Mallett passes for in his Arkansas debut): I’m going to take the over. After all, Casey Dick threw for more than 300 yards in last year’s season opener against Western Illinois, which plays in the same conference as Missouri State. Now the only thing that could keep Mallett from passing for more than 285 yards is if he gets pulled early. After all, Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino said this week that backup quarterback Tyler Wilson will play. Still, I’m taking the over.

  98 (Number of yards running back Michael Smith rushes for in his first game back from a hamstring injury): Again, I’ll take the over. But this one could be a little tougher to predict because the Razorbacks now have a stable of tailbacks waiting behind Smith. The days of the shifty running back getting 35 carries a game are likely over, and guys like Broderick Green, Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo Jr. will take some yards away from Smith. Still, the senior is good for at least 100 yards against Missouri State.

  1 (Number of field-goal or extra-point attempts kicker Alex Tejada misses on Saturday): I’m going to go out on a limb and take the under. Even though the former Springdale High star has been shaky during his career, I think he’ll get the job done against Missouri State. Tejada will make all of his field-goal and extra-point attempts, and one reason for that is because I don’t think he’ll have to attempt any long kicks. Arkansas’ offense should move the ball against the Bears, so even if Tejada is needed, it won’t be for a 40-yarder. So here’s to Tejada coming through.

  38.0 (Average yardage per punt by freshman Dylan Breeding in what will be his Arkansas debut and first start): This is a tough one. Here’s why: If Breeding struggles, Petrino will have  a quick hook and go with junior Briton Forester. That said, does Breeding show off his strong long and attempt enough punts to surpass 38.0 yards per punt? After all, how many times will the Razorbacks punt against Missouri State? I’m going to take the under, but I don’t think Breeding struggles enough for Petrino to pull him. Breeding will boot some nice punts and then maybe have one shank to end a relatively good debut.

  3 (Number of turnovers Arkansas’ defense forces against Missouri State): I say push, meaning that the Razorbacks will get exactly three turnovers. Of course, Arkansas’ defense had their share of problems against Western Illinois last year. A matter of fact, the defense struggled all of last season, which explains why it finished last in the SEC in most statistical categories. But defensive end Adrian Davis and defensive tackle Malcolm Sheppard will apply plenty of pressure upfront, leading to several interceptions and fumbles. And I think cornerback Ramon Broadway will get Arkansas’ first interception of the season.

  Well, there you go. Do you agree with my predictions? If not, where do we disagree? I’m going to make Over-Under a weekly Friday feature on the blog. (However, there won’t be one next week since Arkansas has a bye).

  And again, I’m not encouraging gambling on college football in anyway. So, who do you like: Miami or Florida State? Just kidding.

  

Categorized | Football, General News



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